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GBP AUD British Pound Australian Dollar Bullish

Friday 17th of March 2006 12:52:20 AM

GPB AUD

I am watching the British Pound Australian dollar pair right now live. It is in the process of a fast moving breakout. I meant to write about this a couple days ago, but I suppose better late then never at this point.

I am seeing a bullish bias on British Pound versus X currency pairs right now.

The GBP AUD has been building a very large symmetrical triangle since July 2005. That is about a 1 year symmetrical triangle. In other words this pattern has a lot of cause to it and hence I can make the conclusion at least for now that this run or breakout in the GBP AUD will have staying power and be a solid trend trade.

I see 2.3995 as the next resistance point which I expect to be broken successfully. Eventually I expect a move to 2.45 . But the first challenge is the previously mentioned resistance.

Symmetrical triangles have the potential to whipsaw and be unprofitable. Sometimes a false breakout occurs and then a pullback right back to the apex of the triangle pattern. I do not know if that will occur here yet but I am open to this possiblity always. So tight stops are definitely the proper course of action given this type of breakout.



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Comments

  1. Comment by giovanni | 2008/04/07 at 11:56:04

    hi

    interesting reading…

    we are planning to move to australia from uk, but are very worried about the low exchange rate.

    do you forsee a change this year?

  2. Tom
    Comment by Tom | 2008/04/07 at 12:55:24
    I just looked at the price chart of GBP AUD going back to 1999 and from the chart it is pretty clear that GBP relative to AUD has been in a bearish downward overall trend since mid 2001.

    The recent decline that has been underway for the past 7 to 10 months is a a break downward after a sideways range that lasted about 4 years.

    To answer your question, I think GBP AUD has a little more downward to go before it finds a bottom…

    It is possible that it finds some sort of bottom in 2008 similar to the way the United States dollar setup.

    However, I would keep in mind that even if it finds a bottom, it is hard for me to see GBP gaining huge ground on the AUD in a big way, bottom or not. I say this because Australia is a very resource (hard assets) rich country and commodities are in a huge long term bull market.

    So instead of worrying too much about how weak or strong the GBP is against the AUD, you might want to consider hedging your currency risk with the most popular hard asset currencies like GOLD and SILVER.

  3. Comment by Bill | 2008/09/05 at 19:48:25

    Sorry so say I don’t think is going to turn around for a while. The governments announced that it is in a recession. The Bank of England is going to lower interest rates soon to stimulate the economy with is going to put further pressure on the Pound. Especially with the FED maintaining interest in an attempt to cap inflation as they believe it to be fading over the next six months. I don’t see anywhere the pound is going but down.


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NetPicks simple to follow mechanical trading strategy has been bringing in consistent profits month after month. NetPicks has been publishing stock, options, forex and e-mini futures picks daily since 1996.

NetPicks developed a special forex strategy (our Auto Trade Program) that consistently profits using a mechanical, and controlled risk approach. Forex markets are open 24 hours meaning very late nights or early morning trades. Lets face it, no one wants to monitor a market 24 hours a day, five days per week. With our exclusive auto trade program we have set up computer servers and specially programmed software that will track the strategy and make the trades for you in your account, completely hands free.

Currently NetPicks allows you to try their forex trading system free for two weeks.

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